Wednesday 7 March 2012

Where does everyone stand now testing is over?

Circuit de Catalunya - Testing Venue for Last Two Tests
Now that testing is over, I am going to look at where I believe every team stands as we move towards the season opener in Australia, just over a week away. Before I begin though there are two things to bear in mind, firstly the cars run different fuel loads etc at testing, so we shouldn't look too much at times (in this article, Ive not even given a time). The second thing is that even between the last test and Melbourne, teams will add updates to their cars. Things can change dramatically in Formula One between testing and the first race, as McLaren showed last season. Everything below could change and these are all my own opinions. Let us have your thoughts in the comments section.

McLaren

McLaren have had a very quiet pre-season compared to last year. They had problem after problem in 2011 testing, and then surprised everyone by challenging in the first race (an amazing job done in 2011 by the Woking lads), In the case of this testing season, being quiet is to be seen as a good thing. Both drivers have expressed their delight at their initial impressions of the the car. As always in F1 it is a work in progress, but the signs look good. The car is one of the best looking on the track and you can expect to see them running at the front from the very start. I'd be bold enough to predict that you'll see a Brit on the top step of the podium in Australia. Good from the word go, and if previous seasons are anything to go by, they will get even better.

Red Bull

It would take a very brave person to write off the current champions just because they have had a few issues at testing. Including gearbox issues that limited Sebastian Vettel to just 23 laps on the final day. The RB8 doesn't look any better than it's rivals, but they may well have something up their sleeve for the RB8 mark 2 (as people have been dubbing it), the one Vettel only did 23 laps in. I suspect we will see a mash up of RB8 marks 1 and two at Australia. They will be there or there abouts, that's for certain. Sky Sports' commentator Martin Brundle, recently commented that the RB8 doesn't stick to the track quite like the RB6 and RB7. That's to be expected with the new regulations, and will be the same for every car. I stick with my original predictions, they aren't going to get a third in a row constructors championship. That, I believe will go to the first team we looked at.

Ferrari

Now here is a team in trouble. The last thing that Felipe Massa wanted in a season he has to prove himself, is a car which is both ugly and (sorry) looks like it drives like a dog. At some point, the car could only manage one lap on the super soft tyres. Now either, Ferrari are sandbagging (which is pretty pointless given the amount of testing that is allowed in the sport. I'm going to be a bit negative, which if I am right will disappoint the Tifosi, but unfortunately, they are unlikely to be challenging in Australia. Expect them to improve during the season, mainly because they have to. The powers that be at Maranello won't allow another season like 2011. It doesn't look like it'll be much different I’m afraid.

Mercedes

Due to the troubles of the team above, Mercedes could find themselves pushed up the pecking order in Australia and for the foreseeable future. This can't just be down to the problems of others though. Mercedes decided to delay running their 2012 car until the second test and that may have paid dividends for them, because the car looks good on the track. It's a car that will challenge near the front under it's own steam. I don't believe they have quite done enough to challenge for wins just yet, but podiums, perhaps. The only issue I can see with the W03 is the tyre degradation seems to be an issue, not a major one, but certainly one that could see them struggle against the the next team we look at.

Lotus

With two new drivers in Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean, it will take time for them to get to grips with racing again. It's all well and good putting in good times at tests, but when you have other cars around you, battling for position, things are very different. Lotus are lucky in that they have two new drivers who have done this before, including a world champion. They had a torrid start to testing when the E20 was found to have suspension mounting problems, however this issue got resolved and we saw them in more detail. During race simulations the E20 seems to look after its tyres better than Mercedes and certainly Ferrari. My last comment on Lotus are that whilst Ferrari are the Prancing Horse, Lotus could be the Dark Horse. Watch out for a podium finish in Australia. Maybe Kimi coming back with a bang. This does of course depend on one of the top teams running into trouble.

Force India

Over the testing period, the two main drivers have made the VJM05 look like it will make yet another step up the grid. It's as I originally said in my season preview with this team, they will keep improving and with every season they will make a step forward again in 2012. On the race simulations both Nico Hulkenberg and Paul Di Resta showed that they will be fighting at the front of the midfield, however the middle of the pack will be so much closer this season, especially when you add Caterham into the mix. This team even had a moment of glory in testing when Nico set the pace on day two at Barcelona. Expect Force India to finish ahead of the rest of the midfield in Australia, and the car looks a good base to work from.

Toro Rosso

The STR7 has looked very good over the testing period. They have two rookies in the driving seat for them this season, apart from the part season for Daniel Ricciardo at HRT last season. Toro Rosso have seemed to spend a long time on what look like qualifying laps and pit stop practice during the later tests. Probably a sensible move given the inexperience of their drivers. Toro Rosso had a strong finish to the 2011 season and this seems to have carried over into 2012, a very good sign for the team. It has been a decent testing period for Toro Rosso, baring a few stops out on track. These are all teething troubles though so Toro Rosso fans shouldn't worry unnecessarily. I am expecting the team to be fighting for the final points in Australia.

Williams

Here we go, the team that everyone is waiting to hear about. The team who had a torrid time in 2011. They have given Rubens his marching orders and taken on the services of Bruno Senna (Ayrton's nephew, in case you didn't know...a bit of sarcasm there). It'll be nice to see the name Senna adorn a Williams car again, but it's sad to see Rubens without a seat for 2012. You all know my thoughts on that so I will delve no further. During testing the new Williams, the FW34 has looked ultra reliable, which is very important in the midfield battle. What is also important is speed, but it pains me to tell you, that I haven't seen anything that makes me believe that they'll rise again like a phoenix from the flames. In my pre season preview I predicted that they would at least head up to the front of the midfield. I have to change that prediction and say that unless they have been sandbagging or they have major updates that'll speed the car up dramatically, they will struggle to make any real progress this season. It won't be as bad as 2011 for them, but 2013 may be the year they rise again.

Caterham

As has been said on many occasions, you cannot read too much into pre-season testing times. So Caterham fans, worry not. Caterham have used KERS for the very first time since starting out in Formula One, the great news is that they have had no trouble with their system as far as we are aware. They also have a car, that when you watch it go round the track, seems to stick to the track much better than some of it's main competitors. Now here is the even better news, I believe that Caterham's main competitors this season will not be HRT and Marussia. I am certain that Caterham have taken a larger step forward than in 2011 and will be fighting for points in 2012. They could surprise everyone and get their first point in Australia. They have employed Vitaly Petrov, a good driver who we interviewed recently, and along with the excellent Heikki Kovalainen they have a strong driver line up. Expect Vitaly to shine at last and some points for Caterham during 2012. I'm sticking with my original prediction of a 9th place constructors finish for this team.

Sauber

Sauber look to have a reliable solid car again for the forthcoming season. They have little money but seem to spend it well. In fact Sky Sports reported that Red Bull have taken inspiration from the Sauber exhaust. That's got to be a compliment. Last season Sauber were the strongest midfield team when it came to tyre degradation, there are a new set of rubbers for 2012 so if they can pull that off again then they may challenge further up. The Sauber C31 seems to be solid and reliable, it's just unfortunate that I can't really say much more than that. They must have a decent exhaust system, otherwise (if it's true) Red Bull wouldn't be using it as inspiration. I'm going to stick with my original prediction again but with a slight change. They are likely to be the ones who suffer at the hands of a decent looking Caterham, but it could well be Williams that suffer instead. In summary, solid is good, but not good enough. Tyre wear could get them up the grid though.

Marussia

I can't really report on pre-season testing for Marussia because there has been practically none. They did run in the first Barcelona test with their 2011 car, but that gives us no indication into their 2012 hopes. The new car failed crash tests and that unfortunately meant they couldn't run the car in anger. The first time we will see it running properly will be at Practice One in Australia. Their fans are obviously disappointed with not seeing the new car run. I asked self confessed 'number one' Marussia fan, Peter Kerr what he thought of the new car and it's prospects (a good person to ask as he follows everything to do with the team). Peter commented that the car looked good, a bit like the McLaren (editor - you can see the McLaren influence, for sure). He then went on to say that he didn't expect the car to be challenging in the midfield at Melbourne, but he feels they could be fighting with the midfield closer to mid-season. He says about the immediate future “The crash test was a blow for the team, but that's history now and it's on to Melbourne”. He also sent out a rallying call to all Marussia supporters by saying “Let's all get behind them now and cheer them on.”

HRT

Now we come to Spanish minnows, Hispania Racing Team. Like Marussia they haven't been testing in their 2012 during testing, but took advantage of the filming day regulations. The managed to give both drivers an opportunity to get in the car and take it around the track. Early reports from new HRT driver Narain Karthikeyan are good as he told the official F1 website, “The first impressions are good, certainly a step up from last year.” All I can say about this team, is that they are in a bit of trouble, as yet again they have left everything until the last minute. This means that they may yet again fail to make the starting grid in Australia with the 107% rule in place. Not a good start and with another restructure to take place, will it get any better? I can't see anything other than last place for this team, in everything this season. Sorry.

And Finally

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